the contrarian - Hey, Iran May be Coming Around

The Bush administration is ratcheting up the rhetoric on Iran again. Whether that “old dog” will still hunt is yet another matter. What’s important, however, is that our gang seems to be launching into its eerily familiar pre-attack dance.

Press reports at the end of last week carried the usual accusations that Iran is smuggling weapons and munitions to Shiite militants over its 900-mile long mutual border with Iraq. The reports generally contained the caveat that there was no known proof that the military contraband was coming from Iran, or that the Iranian government was involved.

It’s also a little strange that there is never a mention as to where the Sunnis obtain their ordnance. That’s the group that has been responsible for nearly all the major terrorist incidents in Iraq. We never hear any similar concerns regarding the 400 mile border shared between Iraq and the Sunni nation of Saudi Arabia.

Vice President Cheney has also been on the stump, laying out the administration’s case for an attack on Iran. He even ventured out on Sunday to say that Iran’s intent to build nuclear weapons was obvious and that the U.S. and other countries were “prepared to impose serious consequences” if that nation doesn’t change course.

For its part, Iran has said that any attack will be met with a retaliation that will include the launching of 11,000 missiles into “enemy bases” within 60 seconds. The country has been asserting for some time now that it has developed a high tech capability to cause considerable damage to U.S. military interests in the Gulf region, not to mention that its targets could also include whatever oil tankers might happen by

Without knowing whether it is based on exaggeration, reports have claimed that Iran's arsenal includes the following advanced weaponry:

-- A missile, the Fajr-3, that is invisible to radar and able to strike several targets with multiple warheads.

-- A high-speed torpedo, the Hoot, able to move at some 223 mph, up to four times faster than a normal torpedo, and fired by ships cloaked to radar.

-- A surface-to-sea missile, the Kowsar, with remote-control and searching systems that cannot be scrambled.

-- A "super-modern flying boat," undetectable by radar and able to launch missiles with precise targeting while skimming low over the surface of the water at a top speed of 100 nautical mph.

Meanwhile, in the face of Washington’s hostile threats, and Israel's bombing raid into Syria, there appears to have been a more cooperative strategy coming out of Iran, lately.

For example, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pledged to Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, in September, that his country would provide tighter controls of their mutual border.

Since then, as can be seen in the chart to the left, the trend of weekly deaths among the American military forces has been significantly reduced.

The first bar on the far left represents the average of weekly deaths during the three months prior to the Iranian pledge. That weekly average was 23.  The remaining bars represent the deaths each week since the pledge was made.  The most recent number, last week, was 10.

Also, as can be seen by this second chart, weekly U.S. deaths from improvised explosive devices have also been trending lower.

Again, the far left bar represents the average weekly number of American deaths from IED’s in the three months prior to the Iranian pledge. That weekly average was 15.  The remaining bars represent the deaths from IED’s each week since the pledge was made. The most recent number, last week, was four.

In addition, the rate of civilian deaths has fallen. A week ago last Saturday, the toll fell to its lowest level in recent memory.  Only four people were found dead in the entire country.

Obviously, terrorist attacks are continuing and they may even increase but, at this point, the Shiite involvement clearly seems to have lessened.

And, as far as that important issue concerning Iran’s potential nuclear threat is concerned, it was reported 12 days ago that Iran and the U.N.’s atomic watchdog agency had ended three days of talks aimed at clearing up suspicions concerning Iran’s activity. Those preliminary talks, at least, were described as “satisfactory.”

Yesterday, discussions continued in Rome, and it was considered to be an excellent sign that Iran decided to include Ali Larijani as a member of its delegation. Larijani, who recently resigned as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, is considered a relative moderate who has worked effectively with western officials in the past.

Just as there is no hard evidence that Iran is arming the insurgents, so too, there is no hard evidence that the improvement in the situation in Iraq is related to Iran’s alleged efforts to control its border. Similarly, we do not know at this point that Iran is not building a nuclear capability.

However, there is definitely some optimistic circumstantial evidence surfacing.  Enough, possibly, to justify a reduction in Washington’s saber rattling which, given its track record, is unnerving a good percentage of the world's population.

In the words of John Lennon from 35 years ago, perhaps this is the right time to “give peace a chance.”

Dave McGill, News Correspondent……………….

Dave’s column, “The Contrarian,” generally published every Wednesday, to Gather Essentials: News will sometimes present a contrary view to various aspects of the news, or an alternate take on the conventional wisdom of the day, and will occasionally also appear on other days of the week………….

Dave has been a senior officer of a large eastern insurance company, involved in economic projections and investment strategy, president of a Midwestern mortgage banking company, and a financial consultant in Southern California, serving clients in the field of commercial real estate development…………….

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