What's Happening to the Hillary Campaign?

The Associated Press reported this week that Senator Hillary Clinton's deputy campaign manager has written a memo urging the Presidential candidate to skip the Iowa caucuses in order to focus on other key states. The memo seems to be an acknowledgment, by at least one senior campaign staffer, that Senator Clinton's showing in Iowa will be a weaker one than the campaign had hoped for.

Now, in reality there is little likelihood that Mrs. Clinton will skip Iowa, but her standing in the polls for the Hawkeye State should give the Senator cause for concern.

According to the AP article, a recent poll by the Des Moines Sunday Register put former Senator John Edwards in the lead in Iowa with 29% of the Democratic vote. Senator Barack Obama was in second place with 23% and Senator Clinton rounded out the tail end of the top three with 21%. The numbers are close, and factoring in the margin of error likely puts Senators Obama and Clinton on an equal plane. But looking at these numbers, I can't help but wonder what has happened to the Hillary for President campaign?

Since long before she announced her bid for the Presidency, Senator Clinton was assumed to be the inevitable Democratic nominee. As other notable Democrats entered the race, the talk focused on the fact that the nomination "was Hillary's to lose." None of the political analysts I saw on television or in print in the early going gave any candidate other than Mrs. Clinton a fighting chance. The nomination was hers, it was her turn, and the campaign leading to the general election was a mere formality, something that just had to be done.

My how the times have changed. Senator Obama's popularity continues to soar with Democrats and John Edwards has steadily made progress toward making the Democratic primary a three-way contest in several important states. No longer is Hillary the presumed nominee and no longer is the press giving her the deference she expected. Having been forced to announce her candidacy much earlier than she wanted to (due to the rising "rock star" status of Obama), Senator Clinton is now being forced to fight hard just to stay in the race.

This turn of events virtually guarantees a Democratic primary that will get nastier and meaner as the months drag on. There have been some minor spats between the Obama and Clinton camps thus far, but the best is surely yet to come. The Clinton campaign machine is indeed a force to be reckoned with, and Senator Obama is likely in for the political bruising of his life. Senator Edwards will likely trail off some as more voters become aware of his intention to significantly raise taxes.

But what I expected to be a relatively boring run-up to the Democratic nomination now has the potential to become very entertaining. I still think Senator Clinton will take the nomination, and probably with some considerable breathing room to spare. Still, in a sick, twisted sort of way, I'm actually looking forward to watching the two main contenders slug it out for the chance to be President of the United States.