Electing the Next Generation of Supreme Court Justices? - Presidential Primary 2008

 In the next decade, the Supreme Court will be asked to tackle many of our nations most contentious political and legal issues. The next American president will, in all likelihood, enjoy the priviledge of selecting one or two new Supreme Court justices. Maybe more. In 2008, voters should remember that they will be casting their vote not only for the next president, but also for the individual who will help to pick the next generation of Supreme Court justices.

Aging Justices:

The two justices who are most likely to retire during the next presidency are John Paul Stevens, age 87, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, age 74. Stevens would have to continue to serve into his 90's to outlast the next president, and Ginsburg would have to serve into her eighties should the next president be elected for a second term. It is difficult to predict how long a justice will serve for, given that they are appointed for life. The term of a Supreme Court justice typically  ends in one of two ways: death or voluntary retirement. In either case it is difficult to accurately predict when a justice will depart from the court, unless they are diagnosed with a fatal disease.

Two other justices are in their seventies as well. Anthony Kennedy is 70, and Antonin Scalia is 71. David Souter and Stephen Bryer are both in their late sixties, 67 and 68 respectively. The court's youngest justice is Chief Justice John Roberts, who is 52. Samuel Alito is 57 and Clarence Thomas is 58.

Political Tendencies of the Supreme Court Justices

Presidents generally nominate justices who share their general political ideology. Presidents seek to nominate justices who will provide favorable rulings on cases involving the political issues they care about the most. But presidents also know that their nominees will continue to serve on the Court long after they leave the White House. In selecting a nominee, a president will want to find a justice who will carry on their legacy by continuing to fight for a shared set of political values.

Although Supreme Court Justices are officially impartial and free of ties to political parties, those who study the court have categorized  the justices using the standard labels of liberal, moderate, and conservative. Scalia, Thomas, and Alito are generally considered to be the court's conservatives. Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg, and Breyer are generally viewed as the court's liberal justices. Justice Kennedy has been deemed the middleman, and the justice who will generally provide the deciding vote on otherwise deadlocked cases. Currently, there is a balance between between the conservatives and liberals in the Supreme Court.

Trouble for Liberals?

If liberal justices John Paul Stevens or Ruth Bader Ginsburg leave the court during a Republican presidency it could undermine the ideological balance currently found in the Supreme Court.  The Court's recent decision to support a law banning partial birth abortions should serve as a warning to pro-choice Americans. If the court becomes dominated by conservative justices, pro-life activists will seek to bring cases questioning the legal status of abortion before the court. They may well win such a case under the right circumstances.

But abortion is not the only issue that may come before the courts in the next four to eight years. The court will continue to hear cases on Bush administration policies. The Court may hear more cases on the legal status of detainees captured during the "War on Terror". It may hear cases that question the definition of torture. Historically, the Supreme Court has set precedents that define the balance between national security needs and civil liberties during times of war. The same is true today. Liberals seeking to protect our civil liberties should see the potential for a conservative dominated court as a very real danger.

The election of a liberal president is the only sure way to prevent the creation of a conservative majority in the Supreme Court. It is less likely, but possible, that one of a conservative justice will retire in the next four years - which would allow a liberal president to create a liberal majority in the court. Liberals should see the 2008 election as their way to ensure that the seats of held by Justice Stevens and Ginsburg are passed on to another liberal justice, preserving the ideological balance in the Supreme Court.

Opportunity for Conservatives?

The 2008 Presidential Election could lead to a conservative majority in the Supreme Court. The most obvious implication of this is that the Supreme Court may be willing to hear new cases on the legal status of abortion. But it is also important to note that three of the Court's four conservative justices are only in their fifties. If two new conservative justices are added in the next four to eight years, there could be a conservative majority in the Supreme Court for many years to come. If a liberal president is elected, and he appoints liberal justices, then conservatives will have missed a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Voter Awareness

It is important that voters keep these factors in mind when they are picking a candidate during the 2008 primary season. They should also pay attention to the candidates' specific platforms, regardless of party affiliation. Individual candidates may well position themselves outside of party lines on the issues you may care about the most, as Republican Rudolph Giuliani has done on abortion. Voters should also organize around the issue, and ask each candidate to elaborate on the criteria they would follow if given the opportunity to select a Supreme Court nominee.

The author, David W. Anderson, resides in New Hampshire, home of the first in the nation presidential primary. Mr. Anderson is a graduate student studying political science and has worked for political campaigns and organizations as a volunteer and as a professional since 2003. You can find his weekly correspondent column under the tag "live from new hampshire" or at Gather Essentials: Politicsand Gather Essentials: News