The Bottom Line EXTRA: Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge

Here's my status in the contest as of today:

As of Market Close Rank
131005 (Top 28%)

Week to Date
-0.47% Total Return: 3.52%

Total Portfolio Value
$1,035,195.00

Many of my stock picks are down this week, but I still jumped from 34 percent to 28 percent in the over all rankings -- so I'd have to say that even though my stocks are down they're still outperforming most others in this contest. That's good news for me.

Here's my status as of April 2:

Rank
127,145 (Top 27%)

Week to Date
0.29% Total Return: 3.96%

Total Portfolio Value
$1,039,625.00

I picked up some new stocks on Friday, after watching an inspirational interview with Mad Money host Jim Cramer on "The Big Idea" (with ad guy Donnie Deutsch). New additions to my mock portfolio include Pepsi (PAS). I tried to get in on Jones Soda (JSDA), but for some reason its stocks weren't available for mock purchase through the CNBC system.

As of close of market today I saw a bit of improvement in my holdings. Here's the breakout:

Week to Date Return: 0.44%
Total Return Over the Course of this Contest: 4.12%
Total Portfolio Value: $1,041,210.00

I sold off all but 100 shares of several stocks where I felt the stock price had peaked. I'm keeping the 100 shares from each so that I can continue to follow the company on my CNBC tracker. If the stock continues gaining, at least I'll get a little boost. If it drops as I expect, then the loss to my overall portfolio will be minimal and I can "re-stock" that stock at the lower price.

as of the close 4/2:

Week to Date Return: 1.7%
Total Return Over the Course of this Contest: 5.9%
Total Portfolio Value: $1,059,447.50

I have 1000 GS which I should have dumped last week. The whole banking/finance group has been week. My other holdings are CME, NYX and TSO.


Earnings are starting, so they may be opportunities for same breakouts.

I liked last year's contest better because you could view the leader's portfolios.

Re: I liked last year's contest better because you could view the leader's portfolios.

I agree with you Pat that this would be a nice feature. It appears that they review the week's winning portfolio in the CNBC broadcasts, but I have yet to check that out. Congratulations on your overall returns! Not bad for a few weeks on the market. Heck, if most people got those returns on even an annual basis they'd be extremely happy.

Thanks.
I intended to put some effort into this, but instead I just grabbed a few stocks from my watch list, not waiting for a good entry point.

I know the leaders have been using stocks under $10, and stocks with catalysts in the news or private equity bids.

I don't much like CNBCs web site, but I have been using it a little bit since the contest started, which I expect was their intent. In the stock qoutes area it has a way to compare a stock to its competitors in an industry. This feature is available on other sites, but I find the CNBC presentation of the data easier to digest.

RE: This feature is available on other sites, but I find the CNBC presentation of the data easier to digest.

I agree with you Pat D. I've had quite a bit of trouble with CNBC's news search functionality (there's no "back" button to redo your search or return to your portfolio) and it often doesn't turn up the news I'm looking for. But overall this portfolio challenge is a great experience. The questions are nice as well, since they give me a chance to keep up on the financial news and search out other financial news sites that WILL provide me with the answers.

In the meantime, thanks for sharing the strategies the winners are using. It makes complete sense that they might stick to stocks priced at less than $10 (practically penny stocks in this day and age) because even a few cents in fluctuation presents a much larger percentage of the total value of the stock.

Here's my ranking as of market close on Tuesday:

Overall Rank: 129,188 (Top 26%)

Week to Date Return: 0.73%

Total Return: 4.42%

Total Portfolio Value: $1,044,210.00

I sold off my Pepsi (PAS) and Mentor Graphics (MENT) stock today. I sold Pepsi at nearly $2 over what analysts predicted as its peak price. MENT was a stock I had been holding onto because it's local, and I believe in supporting local companies. But it was up about a dollar in the past week and had been iffy prior to that...so I figured I'd rest easier with it sold.

I also mock-purchased a few stocks that have announced splits within the next few weeks. This will be my first experience with splitting stocks, so I'm looking forward to the ride....

Here's my ranking as of market close on Tuesday:

Overall Rank: 93,469 (Top 19%)

Week to Date Return: 3.40%

Total Return: 7.72%

Total Portfolio Value: $1,077,173.60

No transactions.
I was really pleased to see NYX go up over $5 after the Euronex deal closed today. I expected a pop, but not that much and not that fast. I probably should have sold it. I expect it to retrace a 2 bucks in the next few days.

Even though oil was down today TSO was still up. Yeah!
In real life I trade energy stocks, and it looks like it will be a fine summer for the group.

Your returns are amazing Pat! I just reread the CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio rules, and discovered that the weekly winners are determined by the 10 highest week-to-date returns as of Friday evening. I think you could easily have this week in the bag and be in the finals.

It's nice to see you're picking stock in companies, like TSO, that continue climbing in value even when their industry drops. I have much to learn from you Pat. Thank you so much for checking in with your daily reports!

I dislike that trades made on the CNBC system after 4 p.m. EST don't process until AFTER the next trading day. This means that I need to make my trades prior to 1 p.m. PST in order for the trade to be made at that day's closing stock price and reflected on the following days portfolio. Anyhow, the two sell trades I made yesterday didn't post to my portfolio today, and sure enough the stocks went down as I had predicted. Despite that, I've stayed in the top 26 percentile ... so I don't feel too badly about this. Here's today's ranking at the close of the stock market:

Rank: 129188 (Top 26%)
Week to Date: 1.43%
Total Return: 5.15%
Total Portfolio Value: $1,051,481.00

I took a look at the chart for PAS after you mentioned it. That stock had a great run!

I find the restricted trading in this contest rather difficult also. The street.com has a trading contest where the trades are executed 20 minutes after they are entered. I haven't entered that one.

My results would be great if this was a real portfolio, but in this contest they are WAY behind the leaders. I would like to take credit for TSO, but I got that pick from Eric Bolling on Fast Money. This is the season to move into energy stocks, but without the information from Mr Bolling, I would not have understood that refiners are the best group in the sector right now. The refiners will be a good play as long as gasoline supplies remain tight and refining capacity remains restricted. TSO had an additional boost from an analyst upgrade today. I like to see a stock move up on an upgrade. To me that signals that there is still some buyers left.

As of the close wednesday 4/4/2007
Rank: 84,944 (Top 17%)
Week to Date: 5%
Total Return: 9.3%
Total Portfolio Value: $1,093,824.10

No trades.
Of my 4 holdings, GS and NYX were down, CME and TSO were up.

I'm not sure if CNBC's portfolio tracker is working right now, as all of my stocks indicate no change for the day. That just can't be. Anyhow, here's my update prior to market close (so, for Thursday):

Rank: 137,534 (Top 25%)
Week to Date: 2.03%
Total Return: 5.76%
Total Portfolio Value: $1,057,618.98

It's interesting that my numerical rank went down, by my percentage rank went up. I also didn't have time to answer either of the bonus trivia questions yesterday, which I'm bummed about. That will likely reflect in a lower end-of-week ranking.

I didn't check into my portfolio on Friday, so I lost some points and some trade opportunities there. Taking a lead from you Pat for a small but highly selective portfolio, today I dumped all of my stock that was up but has been iffy over the past few weeks (Martha Stewart, Qualcomm...). Consequently, I'll have quite a bit of cash to spend tomorrow so I'll be researching today for some nice $10 and under stocks on the rise.

Here's today's portfolio, just prior to market close:

Rank: 137,534 (Top 25%)
Week to Date: 0.00%
Total Return: 5.76%
Total Portfolio Value: $1,057,618.98

I have to stop announcing my stock sells before they actually take place. This is the second time in a row that the stocks I've opted to sell have tanked after my announcement, which means that the price I actually sell them at are far below the price I expect to sell them at given the lag in CNBC's end-of-day/next-day transaction process. Both of the stocks I sold in my last past went south before the account actually sold them off. Hence, I actually lost money on Qualcomm after a nice several week raise. Qualcomm is back up today. Bummer. I'm not saying that the market hinges on my buy/sell recommendations... Maybe it's just a jinx.

Anyhow, so marks my first week were my portfolio growth is actually in the negative. Here's today's ranking:

Rank: 150950 (Top 24%)
Week to Date: -0.06%
Total Return: 5.70%
Total Portfolio Value: $1,057,012.92

Me again, apparently talking to myself. Anyhow, for those checking in and not posting their results (page views indicate that's the case), here's my results from today:

Rank: 206,589 (Top 25%)
Week to Date: -0.96%
Total Return: 4.75%
Available Cash: $3,000.10
Stock Holdings: $1,044,494.65
Total Portfolio Value: $1,047,494.75

This is the first week I've had a negative. It bites. I bought heavily into a stock that I thought was going to split, and it turned out I read the charts for 2006 rather than 2007 -- so the split happened a year ago. This week, the stock is steadily dropping. Lesson learned: don't search the Internet for "upcoming stock splits" and think you'll actually get them.

In the meantime, I've made ground since the first part of the week. Believe it or not, -.96 percent is a definitive improvement. Yikes.

I made no trades this week until friday at the close.
I sold my GS and bought some SLW and CCJ. Minerals and energy are what seems to be working, so I am going that way. These stocks have run up quite a bit, so this may be a mistake. The trend cannot continue for ever, and when it corrects its likely to be severe.
I like the commodity and energy groups generally, but they tend to fall harder and faster than most other sectors.
Financials are weak lately and I see no catlyst to change that. Some of the money center banks report this week, so that may give some visibility.

Rank: 83,5148 (Top 10%)
Week to Date: 2.28%
Total Return: 11.59%
Available Cash: $26,461.60
Stock Holdings: $1,089,415.60
Total Portfolio Value: $1,115,877.20

My good results are largely due to the bonus questions. I have earned $80K to date on those. If you back them out, my actual return is only about 3%.

Current holdings: CCJ, CME, NYX, SLW, TSO

Nice to hear from you Pat. Without the bonus questions, right now I'd be about even with my $1 million starting amount. Congrats on keeping up the week-to-week growth, however, while mine took a dive.

Well I got the financials exactly WRONG.
The not so bad numbers from Citigroup (C) and Wachovia (WB) provided the catalyst to send this group higher.

Oh well. That's the fun and frustration of earnings season.

I've been there Pat. Haven't we all?

I'm reticent to even check my earnings for today, given my faux pas in sinking a huge chunk of my portfolio into a stock that DIDN'T split as I thought it would. But I'll bite the bullet...

Okay, not so bad. I'll keep a closer eye on my portfolio this week. Hopefully I keep keep it on its upward trend.

Rank: 206,589 (Top 25%)
Week to Date: 0.85%
Total Return: 5.64%
Available Cash: $3,000.10
Stock Holdings: $1,053,376.69
Total Portfolio Value: $1,056,376.79

Per our earlier conversation Pat, I did a little research on penny stocks today. I learned from the pennystockinsider.com blog that "'Penny Stocks' is one of the top 10 financial searches on the Internet. In fact, more people searched for penny stocks than for terms like: stock broker, NYSE, and stock pick. 'Penny stocks' is searched 15 times more than 'blue chip'." To me this indicates a desire from consumers to get into less expensive stocks in order to "try out" the market. Yet my Google search for "penny stocks" turned up very little on the first few pages that would be of benefit, other than subscription services from places like MotleyFool.com. Anyhow, I'll keep up the search. One site I'll explore a little more is thehotpennystocks.com. Is a message board, so who knows whether the advice is tested or not, but there are links to other sources as well.

I also picked up some oil stock today; my first. I'll keep you posted.

Here's my portfolio as of today (I sold off all of my heavy gainers today, which will be indicated in tomorrow's totals...all had gained past market expectations and made me at least $1 profit per share):

Rank: 226,201 (Top 26%)
Week to Date: 1.13%
Total Return: 5.94%
Available Cash: $6,000.10
Stock Holdings: $1,053,376.69
Total Portfolio Value: $1,059,376.79

As of tomorrow, here are my bonus buck totals (which can be subtracted by the above value to show my actual returns):

Video $34,000
News $17,000
Total Dollars $51,000

Yikes!! Most of my gains are thanks to the bonus points. But I guess a nearly $10,000 gain in around two months isn't that bad.... That's a 12 percent annualized return, certainly better than a savings account return. Nonetheless, I'm very thankful for this "free" trial to hone my skills.

And for today:

Rank: 214,381 (Top 23%)
Week to Date: 1.10%
Total Return: 5.91%
Available Cash: $94,361.00
Stock Holdings: $964,692.65
Total Portfolio Value: $1,059,053.65

It's hard to believe that my overall contest portfolio is down, but I'm up as for as the contest-wide percentages. I guess my cash position insulated me from the fall that most of the stocks felt today. I put in a buy request today for 5,000 shares of a little-known software company, which will show tomorrow. I also intend to sell a few more companies to whittle down my list.

The 10,000 shares I purchased errantly thinking it was due for a stock split are still falling. I'm hoping it will regain at least back to what I purchased it for, so I can unload it then. But if this goes on for much longer I may just opt to cut my losses....

I'm down this week, but surprisingly up in the rankings from last week. I guess everyone else's stock picks are down even farther. Here's my update:

Rank: 232,541 (Top 19%)
Week to Date: -1.09%
Total Return: 6.39%
Available Cash: $26.16
Stock Holdings: $1,063,923.20
Total Portfolio Value: $1,063,949.36

Note that $57,000 of the above is from the bonus points, so in all I've added $6,949.36 in real stock gains to my portfolio over the past two months. I'm still learning though, and am still being hit hard by the earlier stock split stock.

I've been taking a long-term investment approach, rather than the short-term approach necessary to do well in this week-to-week contest. However, my goal throughout this wasn't necessarily to win...it was to learn the ins and outs of stock trading and start to feel confortable with the best ways to make picks. That I'm learning. So all good.

Here's today's tally:

Rank: 291,559 (Top 22%)
Week to Date: -0.93%
Total Return: 6.57%
Available Cash: $3,747.16
Stock Holdings: $1,061,980.72
Total Portfolio Value: $1,065,727.88

No change in rank today, although I've made up some ground on my returns:

Rank: 291,559 (Top 22%)
Week to Date -0.88%
Total Return: 6.62%
Available Cash: $6,747.16
Stock Holdings: $1,059,482.40
Total Portfolio Value: $1,066,229.56

I haven't made a trade in a while. My TSO holding is doing well, but CME has fallen a lot.
Rank: 160,808 (Top 12%)
Week to Date -0.68%
Total Return: 11.96%
Available Cash: $21,380.00
Stock Holdings: $1,098,170.30
Total Portfolio Value: $1,119,550.30