ELECTION DAY !

One of the nastiest and most expensive campaigns in history came to an end yesterday.  Today, Americans are heading for the voting booths to elect 33 U.S. Senators, 435 U.S. Representatives, 36 state governors and many others.  We'll be tracking the results, concentrating, for the most part, on the bitterly contested campaigns for the two chambers of Congress. 

According to a USA Today/Gallup Poll released yesterday, 68% of adults said they were "absolutely certain" they would vote.  This is the highest level of interest for a mid term election in the 50 years that Gallup has kept such records.  Gallup had previously reported that the generic breakdown would be 54% to 46% in favor of the Democrats.  It should be noted, however, that it has become increasingly difficult, over the past 10 years, to translate the results of the generic polls into a determination of winners and losers.

The battlefield for the Senate Campaign, based on the most recent polls, seems to be shaping up as shown below.

              THE SENATE BATTLE

(Democrats Need to Pick up Six Seats for Control)

                            Democrat      Republican    TOTALS

Makeup:

Not Contested           27                    40                 67

Retiring (Contested)    3                      1                   4 

Others (Contested)    15                   14                  29    

TOTALS                  45                   55                100

CONTESTED:

Considered Safe           9                    6                  15

Leaning Republican       0                   2                    2

Leaning Democrat         7                   2                    9

Tossups                       2                   5                   7              

TOTALS                   18                  15                 33

Obviously those seven tossup seats appear to be the key to which party will control the Senate, and therefore, these races will be the focus of a great deal of attention today.  The two Democratic seats at risk are in Maryland and New Jersey.  The five Republican seats considered tossups are in Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, Montana, and Rhode Island.

Assuming that the Democrats take Ohio and Pennsylvania from the Republicans, where they seem to be enjoying double digit leads in the latest polls, they would then need nearly a clean sweep in the states listed in the preceding paragraph to pick up the four additional seats required for control.

This is not impossible.  The only one of these tossup states that seems to be clearly headed into the Republican camp is Tennessee.

So that's the preliminary situation for the Senate races, probably slightly optimistic for the Republicans.  Over on the other battlefield, however, the GOP may be on the verge of losing control of the House.  The preliminary situation, again based on the most recent polls, is summarized below. 

        THE BATTLEFOR THE HOUSE

              (All 435 Seats up for Election)

   (Democrats Need to Pick up 15 for Control)

                             Democrat    Republican    TOTALS

                          (incl. 1 vac.)  (incl. 3 vacs.)

Considered Solid      184               165               349

Likely Democrat         12                   0                 12

Leaning Democrat        6                   6                 12

Likely Republican        0                  12                 12

Leaning Republican     0                   14                14

Tossups                     1                  35                36    

TOTALS                 203                 232              435

Obviously, everyone will be watching those 36 tossup seats.  It does not bode well for the GOP that 35 of them are currently in Republican hands.  Furthermore, the final polls gave slight edges to the Democratic challengers in 23 of the 36 contests.

To borrow a term from tennis, unforced errors have also hurt the GOP.  Foley and DeLay are just the best known examples.  Barbara Cubin, an at-large Representative from Wyoming is in a close race despite the fact that Wyoming is one of the most reliable Republican strongholds in the country.  She didn't help her cause when, during a recent televised debate, she shouted at the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin, "I ought to slap your face."  Rankin uses a wheelchair because he suffers from MS and is a paraplegic.

John Sweeney, in New York's 20^th, is the subject of reports on November 3^rd that he was involved in domestic abuse.  This follows stories of a drunken night at the Alpha Delta Phi House last spring.                                                                    

Don Sherwood, in Pa 10, the most conservative district in the state, shouldn't be in a close race, but he is.  In 2004 he had an affair with a woman who subsequently filed assault charges against him and settled out of court.

In summary, it would take a huge and sudden shift in public opinion to overcome the Democratic momentum for control of the House, and, such a situation – at this late stage – is simply not in the cards.