Threat Perceptions

For the next ten years at least, the only threat to America China will mount with any amount of credibility will be an economic threat. As I said to my father early week before last, upon my first trip to the Chinese south and east since 2001, "the Chinese have grown in 5 years what I thought it would take them 20."

They do pose a threat to our economic well-being--but not necessarily an intentional one, in that our relationship grows more perverse by the day. We buy their manufactured goods, they buy our debt. They pretend to let the market determine the value of their currency and we pretend to support a strong dollar policy. Wash, rinse and repeat. . .

I did say it was perverse didn't I?

But this doesn't stop George Friedman, he of the "Coming War with Japan" book and Stratfor chairman, from arguing that the US government sees, or at least perceives a strategic/military threat from China.

He writes, "Whether the Chinese actually are constructing this force [to disable our Pacific fleet ~spk] is less important than that the United States believes the Chinese are doing this."

That's certainly an accurate statement, although meaningless. First, they may or may not be constructing it. We don't know. Just think about that for a few moments before wading into the rest of what he writes. We have satellites and the most powerful navy the world has ever seen. Of all things military, we should at least be able to discern China's actual and real naval capabilities, right?

Then again, Saddam did have 85 gazillion gallons of botulinum or something, yeah?

Friedman does manage this gem, which led to a large sigh of relief on my part that should make us all feel safe and secure knowing the imaginative boys at the Pentagon are hard at work!

Today, it appears to be the Pentagon's view that China is following the Soviet model.

Let that ferment for a moment too.

How nice. The Pentagon thinks that the Chinese will follow the Soviet model. One thing I can guarantee about the Chinese is that they will not ever, ever, in a million years be as unimaginative and stultifying as the Soviets. (That's not to say they'll win. Then again, I shudder to imagine what victory looks like in this case.) They'll be different--indirect--for sure; ever heard of Sun Tzu?

There are some more nuggets worth mining out of his essay "US Perceptions of a Chinese Threat," and I hope to get to them tomorrow. But it's late and well, you know . . .